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Ansem's called for a top š¤Æ
A CFW Update ā¢į“ā¢
Havenāt done one of these in a while.
Last similar update (that I remember):
Weāve come a long way since May 30 and itās been a profitable run.
(If you followed it and printed, let me know.)
There are plenty of quants on the timeline, not trying to be one...
but hereās my positioning for the next quarter and possibly Q1 2026.
ā Macro
This environment is trickier than it should be for a late-cycle phase.
Inflation risks, the nature of rate cuts, and temporary uncertainty have made navigation weird for me as well.
Hope im not the only one.
Two boats: classic 4-year cycle vs extended cycles.
I wonāt pretend to predict the future. But...
What we can do is play the charts.
Not sure if BTCās bottom is in, but Iām fairly confident itās close.
Maybe we sweep 107s, maybe not.
Probably lower? (i think not)
Either way, BTC isnāt the most interesting chart right now.
Iām seeing strong alts sitting in HTF demand zones and holding despite rough sentiment.
Fear and Greed is at 28. Feels overextended.
I shared the $OTHERS chart a few weeks ago expecting a pullback. Itās here.
ā Positioning
Aster was a good win. Iāve rotated those gains into a few coins I like for upside.
My biggest spot bag remains $HYPE, $ETH after.
The $ASTER vs HYPE narrative is short lived for me. Iām happy people are printing and bullposting it constantly.
Iām not banking on any single platform's downfall.
HYPE has proven its product and model.
Still feels undervalued for what the ecosystem delivers. Repricing looks likely.
(The market is big enough to house competing ecosystems in the same niche.)
Aster should see higher prices too.
Iām trading it currently with near term targets of $3, and will buy back spot on notable dips. (if given)
Iāve also added small exposure for a mix of reasons including healthy charts:
⢠AERO
⢠CRV
⢠BONK
⢠PENGU
⢠FART
⢠LAUNCHCOIN
I really want to add XRP, DOGE too.
I've taken some perpetual trades that I will rotate into these if I close them profitably.
ā Sizing
HYPE is the biggest. The rest are small tilts, roughly 5ā10% each. Risk is defined.
There are probably more good tokens out there.
Drop your Q4 plays and the tokens you're bullish on.
Hoping to ride these into Q4 and, depending on market structure, maybe Q1 2026.
Oh and @blknoiz06 called the top?
What about it. His account, his words, he's allowed to share his thoughts. Stop getting emotional over words, silly.
If it's truly over... then it's over for us all, isn't it.
Until then,
Respect the pump.
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This isn't a hyperliquid post btw
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