Today was the second day up for the MOVE index and $jpy went out at the highs. A pickup in fixed income volatility and FX vol is a necessary condition for calling an equity correction because we need the cross asset players to begin to broaden out their risk-off exposures. The VIX has been grinding higher for the last few days as well, finally today ending with the SPX having a down day. Next, I'd like to see a pickup in implied correlation and a bottoming in realized volatility. Both of those conditions started today as well, mildly off the lows, but with much room to move higher. If this continues, this is how you would start to get a potential unraveling of the very long systematic equity exposure in CTAs and vol control funds, both of which are close to 5-year highs in length. And we are currently in a share buyback blackout period as well, so we don't have that passive flow support either. Without any government data, we are left with private sector macro data and then corporate earnings to give folks an idea of where economic momentum is heading. Private macro data like ADP and ISM services are showing signs of a stalled-out economy ex-AI. We can see weakness in transports, regional banks, retail, and housing as areas that are struggling due to a slowdown in the labor market. On the flip side, AI-facing names continue to be fine, but some caution under the hood is brewing about the circularity of spending/revenues/investments. Where does the rubber hit the road? I think we are at risk here of a little air pocket lower as some of these systematic and cross asset headwinds I'm observing marry the weak consumer-related exposures to drive down risk appetite in the coming weeks. Hedge up. @AnthonyCrudele @chigrl @NinjaTrader_Jim @Convertbond