(Last post of the Chuseok holiday) Thoughts on the collapse of the US dollar hegemony Today, the most fundamental pillar supporting the global economy is the ‘dollar’. Payments between countries, trade, asset valuation, and even central banks' foreign exchange reserves revolve around the dollar. But how long can this system last? Hegemony has always been built on technology, institutions, and trust, and no hegemony has ever been eternal. Just as the British pound did, the dollar also contains the possibility of ‘collapse’. However, this collapse is unlikely to take the form of a sudden event like war or a financial crisis. Rather, it is likely to be a gradual structural shift occurring amidst the evolution of technology, changes in institutions, and the reconstruction of trust. The United States is now standing at that inflection point. If the hegemony of the dollar is derived not just from the ‘power of currency’ but from the institutional foundations of the United States, such as free markets, the rule of law, and trust, then its collapse will also begin not merely as an issue of exchange rates but from a change in the value system. Therefore, when discussing the future of dollar hegemony, we should ask not “Will it collapse?” but “In what form will it evolve?” Who will be the next protagonist on the stage of dollar hegemony? 1. “Technology, labor, institutions” — The core of 'Why Nations Fail' is simple yet fundamental. 2. When these three are organically intertwined, a nation grows and maintains hegemony. 3. If we apply this logic to the era of digital currency, we can see why the US is moving towards a stablecoin-centered strategy while abolishing CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). 4. CBDC is a complete ‘controlled currency system’ issued by central banks that can track all transactions in real-time. 5. Technically efficient, but it directly conflicts with the fundamental values of American society. 6. Since its founding, the US has been extremely sensitive to the expansion of government power. Even at the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, there was strong backlash against “centralized financial control.” 7. In such a country, it is difficult to accept a system where the central bank monitors all citizens' transactions in real-time. 8. The US economy has developed based on private-led innovation rather than government. AI, semiconductors, the internet, and even the trust in the dollar have been supported more by the private financial system than by the government. 9. CBDC directly contradicts this tradition. 10. The US is trying to choose a ‘market-oriented digital dollar’ instead of a ‘controlled digital currency’. 11. At the center of this is stablecoins. Stablecoins are digital dollars linked to the dollar, issued by private companies, and transparently traded on the blockchain. 12. This structure maintains the trust in the dollar while securing both market innovation and global scalability. 13. Until now, dollar hegemony has been maintained through the structure of ‘US Treasury bonds → global payments → dollar demand’. 14. Stablecoins are a form that moves this system onto the blockchain. 15. In other words, if the dollar becomes the standard in digital payment infrastructure, the hegemony of the dollar will be further strengthened. 16. Promotion of private competition and innovation USDC (Circle), PYUSD (PayPal), JPM Coin (JP Morgan), etc. Major financial institutions and tech companies have already begun issuing stablecoins. 17. This is a form where the ‘digital dollar market’ is led by the private sector, and the US government is approaching this ecosystem with a strategy of ‘supervising but not controlling’. 18. Weaponization of global liquidity Stablecoins can be transferred anywhere in the world with just a smartphone. 19. This is faster and cheaper than the existing SWIFT system. 20. If the whole world starts using stablecoins as a means of payment, that would mean the ‘globalization of the digital dollar’ — which becomes a new form of hegemony for the US. 21. Bitcoin is not just an asset. It serves as the ‘base collateral’ for the entire virtual asset ecosystem. 22. If Bitcoin collapses, the trust in stablecoins and the entire digital asset market will be shaken. 23. This is similar to how the entire market collapses when the credit of the base collateral is shaken in the securities firm's RP (repurchase agreement) or MMF market. 24. Therefore, the US is moving in a direction that officially does not control Bitcoin while recognizing and institutionalizing it to some extent. 25. This is not just a ‘regulatory relaxation’ but a strategic management to maintain the foundational trust of the digital financial ecosystem. 26. The evolution of dollar hegemony comes from ‘trust, not control’ 27. CBDC provides efficiency but threatens trust. 28. Stablecoins create trust but have less control. 29. Ultimately, the path chosen by the US is a matter of ‘philosophy’ rather than ‘technology’. 30. Dollar hegemony is not maintained solely by military power or interest rate policies. 31. At its core are trust in free markets and the institutions and technologies that support that trust. 32. If CBDC is ‘currency of control’, stablecoins are ‘currency of trust’. 33. And hegemony is always held by those who have trust. 34. The US will become a country that can maintain hegemony ‘without introducing CBDC’ rather than a country that ‘does not introduce CBDC’. 35. That is the power of the dollar, and stablecoins are the digital version of that power.